Peanut Market News – January 19, 2017

2017 Contracts

SE – Market is trying to back off $ 25 to $450 per ton but some trade continues in spots at $475 as the transition lower takes place, plus $25 per ton for seed production, $50 per ton premium for High Oleic production.  Some contract sign-up is l/2 last year’s production at $450 per ton, with some areas at $475 per ton plus $25 per ton for seed production.  Some $450/$475 per ton reduced to $425 per ton for freight differential, hauling from long distance production areas to shelling plant.

2016 FLEX
$400 ton base price = 0.52.  For each 0.01 increase in price above 0.52, add $ 13.50 ton up to a maximum of 0.61.

Present price is 0.57, which equals 0.05 improvement, or a price of $ 467.50 ton. Maximum price achievable at 0.61 is $ 521.50.

2016 MIN -MAX
$400 base.  Farmers sell peanuts based on sheller web price before end of March, up to MAX $500 per ton.($475)

This includes peanuts not contracted remaining in the loan.

 

ENVIRONMENTAL  PROTECTION AGENCY WANTS COMMENTS

This time it is on chlorphrifos (Lorsban & Generic Formulations. Officials report that EPA is moving forward with efforts to revoke all food use tolerances for chlorpyrifos (Lorsban and generic formulations). Stakeholders may enter comments related to this action on the EPA website until January 17, 2017.

 EPA is announcing and inviting comment on additional information obtained and developed by EPA in conjunction with the proposed tolerance revocation for chlorpyrifos. EPA is specifically soliciting comments on the validity and propriety of the use of all the new information, data, and analyses. The EPA continues to seek comment on possible mitigation strategies, namely, use deletions, which might allow the EPA to retain a small subset of existing chlorpyrifos food uses.  Commenters need not resubmit comments previously submitted. EPA will consider those comments, as well as comments in response to this notice, in taking a final action. To comment, visit info@gapeanuts.com  and see ACTION ALERT.  Deadline is Tuesday, January 17.

 

U.S. PEANUT PRODUCTION- 2016

Peanut production is estimated at 5.68 billion pounds, (2,842,305 tons) down 9 percent from the November forecast and down 5 percent from 2015. Planted area is estimated at 1.67 million acres, up 3 percent from 2015. Harvested area is estimated at 1.55 million acres, down 3 percent from the November forecast and down 1 percent from last year. The average yield is estimated at 3,675 pounds per acre, down 259 pounds from the November forecast and down 170 pounds from 2015.

 

U.S. PEANUT EXPORTS

U.S. peanut exports continue to set new records.  The FAS reports peanut exports up 58.66%

January through October, 2016.  China was the major buyer and if you add China and Vietnam, that market area has purchased 41.4% of exports. Canada and Mexico continue as major peanut butter and peanut markets with 17.6% and 11.01%, respectively, The European Union area of The Netherlands, United Kingdom and Germany remain as 3-5% of the Market Share.  Shellers report that strict quality standards involving aflatoxin have caused some deliveries to be discontinued. 

The American Peanut Council has established a new Europe Aflatoxin Task Force to address the issue of aflatoxin in peanuts destined to the EU.  Led by Chairman Karl Zimmer, the group agreed to work closely with AMS who will interface with the EU Commission on the issue as the industry investigates methods to increase compliance with EU standards.

CHINA PEANUT HAPPENINGS – (Special Report)

On December 26, 2016, the domestic peanut production areas was beaten by snow; peanut market buying and selling atmosphere is light, tight supply, buyers wait-and-see market, peanut prices fall vulnerable.

In Henan, Shandong area buying and selling atmosphere slightly bland, weak market stability.  Peanut prices dropped slightly and the rainy weather, the peanut market transaction is blocked, farmers cover their goods out, buyers get on demand.

 To sum up, each region in snow and rain and farmers under the pressure of chasing a double peanut market-trading atmosphere continued thin trading remained deadlocked. Expected in the absence of positive support conditions, the overall market will stay volatile in the short-term adjustment. (Source : ARG NL)

 

NO OVERSUPPLY OF U.S. PEANUTS

Brad Haire had a good summary of the peanut supply in the latest edition of the SOUTHEAST FARM PRESS – There is no oversupply of U.S. peanuts. Despite what was otherwise believed earlier in 2016, numbers now show the U.S. peanut market is tight.

 At this time, USDA says the 2016 peanut crop will come in around 3.15 million tons, but that projection is likely too high, said Bob Parker, president and CEO of the National Peanut Board, in a phone.  Parker, who has been following the industry for four decades, feels an optimistic production for the 2016 crop, which saw adverse, hot, dry weather in primary growing regions, might be 2.9 million tons with chances of it being as low as 2.8 million tons.

 As of Dec. 19, the Federal-State Inspection Service, which inspects all peanuts produced in the U.S., had inspected 2,742,777 tons of peanuts with fewer and fewer tons being inspected daily because there is not many more 2016 peanuts coming in as the year closes. Strong domestic use and record exports are eating well into the U.S. peanut production. With 2016 production a more-realistic 2.8 million to 2.9 million tons, at best the industry will carry in to the 2017 marketing year, which starts Aug. 1, about a 784,000-ton surplus, which shellers need to keep plants shelling for the three months following as they wait for the bulk of the 2017 production to arrive at warehouse doors in October. A 784,000-ton carryover from one production season to another isn’t an oversupply; it is a tight supply, and Parker said peanut farmers need to know this. And at current shelling capacity, the carryover is right at the three-month supply needed to keep shellers running.

The situation was different this time last year, or at least market perception was different. It was believed the peanut industry was facing a major surplus going into 2016. And early before planting began for the 2016 crop, peanut growers were being urged to make sure they had in hand a contract and room in an approved warehouse before planting the 2016 crop because at that time it was believed there might not be enough warehouse space available to store what would be left of the 2015 crop while adding the 2016 crop. But the oversupply fear was all wrong and based on bad numbers. There was no crunch on warehouse space for peanuts as the 2016 harvest came into focus. Some warehouses were shelled out of the 2015 crop by August or September, Parker said, something he hadn’t seen in years.

The June Peanut Stocks and Processing Report, published in July 2016, had the peanut supply grossly overstated. The July report, published in August, adjusted down the carry-out by more than 750,000 tons. That was a huge adjustment, and it cost farmers money who sold their peanuts for less than what they were actually worth based on perceived large peanut surplus. ”I believe a lot of poor and costly marketing decisions were based on this incorrect information,” Parker said. .USDA has approved warehouse capacity, which is an economically vital system of storage for the peanut industry, to handle about 3.7 million tons of peanuts.

via Peanut Farm Market News, a peanut hotline service of The Spearman Agency, Tyron Spearman, editor